NOAA Upgrades U.S. Weather Forecast Model

The core U.S. weather forecast model is about to receive a much-needed update. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s flagship weather model, the Global Forecast System, is receiving a significant upgrade to include a new dynamical core called the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3). This change will bring about a massive improvement in global numerical weather prediction with improved forecasts of severe weather, winter storms in addition to tropical cyclone intensity and track.

The FV3 was originally developed by NOAA research scientists as a tool to predict long-range weather patterns at time frames from multiple decades to seasonal, subseasonal, and interannual. It has been expanded to become the engine for NOAA’s next-generation Global Forecast System in recent years.

“In the past few years, NOAA has made several significant technological leaps into the future – from new satellites in orbit to this latest weather model upgrade,” commented Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. With this new dynamic core in place, the NOAA will be able to make more accurate 1-2 day forecasts as well as increase its accuracy for 3-7 day forecasts.

GFS with FV3 combines the advanced dynamics of global climate modeling with the reliability and speed of day-to-day operational numerical weather prediction. The forecasting capability also gets improved due to the additional enhancements to the science that produce rain and snow in the GFS.

Adnan Farooqui
Categories: General