Boruchow’s predictions are based on the initial demand that Apple saw for the Apple Watch, which according to another analyst has been estimated to have been around 2.3 million pre-orders. Boruchow states that this signifies very strong initial demand that could potentially eat into Fossil’s market share who sells about an estimated 30-35 million units annually.
He writes, “We estimate that FOSL sells only 30-35 million watch units annually, so a relatively low attachment rate for the Apple Watch can result in significant cannibalization of FOSL’s fashion-watch business.” Of course these are just initial estimates as we expect a more accurate picture will be painted once the device gets into the hands of customers, after which sales could see a marked improvement due to word of mouth marketing, or it could see a decline if customers aren’t happy with their purchases.
In fact a survey from last week revealed that teen interest in the Apple Watch has dropped from the previous survey, indicating that if Apple wants to try and capture the teen market, they will have to try harder.