While Apple investors are (kind of) panicking at the idea that Steve Jobs might give up his role as CEO, customers are confident that Apple can do well without its chief. According to a study from RBC Capital Markets, 93% say that they would still continue to buy Apple’s products if Steve Jobs steps down. RBC interpret this as “Apple may be bigger than its CEO”, implying that Apple would do well without Steve Jobs.
I actually think that the question is wrong to start with. People don’t buy Apple’s products because Steve Jobs is Apple’s CEO. They buy them because they are great (or at least, very shiny). The real question is whether or not Apple can continue to create good products in the intermediate future if Steve Jobs is not around. He is widely seen as the force (and the ultimate veto) behind every decision (down to the smallest icons) at Apple, and so far, it’s hard to argue that he has not done well (except for the Apple TV, which doesn’t have any “Apple glow”).
The most likely scenario is an Alexander type of story where if/when Steve Jobs steps down, the control of the company will be effectively be split between his “generals”, and that Apple would remain stable for a product cycle or two. Beyond that, it’s fairly unknown and whatever the average consumer tells you on the street today doesn’t provide any insight at all about whether or not Apple can make cool products without Steve Jobs. He is certainly not behind every idea at Apple, but it only takes a few bad decisions to waste a whole lot of talent. In short, the RBC survey that involves 3091 Apple customers is interesting as a discussion topic, but provide little insight for investors.
Often, history has shown that companies that have successes based on vision and innovation have a hard time coping with the loss of their founders (look at Sony). They fall back on their brand name and keep looking behind at the “old good days” while slowly (or rapidly!) declining as no-one wants (or is allowed) to take risks and basically “mess with the brand”. That’s the innovation version of fighting with handcuffs.
What’s your take? Would Apple do well without Steve Jobs? Drop a comment to share your opinion.
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